Media Spin Crime Surge as ‘Crime Is Down,’ ‘Historic Low’

MSNBC’s Jose Diaz-Balart Studies

September 23, 2024

11:17 a.m. Japanese

KEN DILANIAN, NBC NEWS JUSTICE AND INTELLIGENCE CORRESPONDENT: This report is entitled “Crime within the Nation.” It is the FBI’s greatest estimate of what occurred final 12 months when it comes to crime, and it exhibits a big lower. Violent crime decreased an estimated three % final 12 months, in line with the FBI. Homicide and manslaughter got here down an estimated 11.6 %. That is the largest drop within the final 20 years. Aggravated assault down 2.8 %. And this is what’s additionally necessary to listen to about this, Jose, as a result of there’s been numerous criticism of FBI crime information. This information coated 94 % of the U.S. inhabitants. And whereas it is true that not all crimes are reported, all murders are counted.

And what this exhibits, huge image — as a result of that is the second 12 months in a row that the FBI has documented a decline in violent crime — it exhibits that after a giant spike through the pandemic, violent crime is again right down to round 2019 ranges, which was historic lows actually if you evaluate it to the Nineteen Nineties. And, in fact, this contradicts what Donald Trump and plenty of of his Republican allies have been saying. They have been out on the marketing campaign path saying that violent crime is rising dramatically in cities across the nation. It is simply not what the numbers present, Jose.

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MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell Studies

September 23, 2024

12:36 p.m.

ANDREA MITCHELL: And subsequent, new numbers out as we speak exhibiting general crime charges are down throughout the nation regardless of what Donald Trump is saying on the marketing campaign path.

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12:40 p.m.

MITCHELL: Donald Trump is repeatedly accusing the Biden-Harris administration of letting crime run rampant, particularly crime from undocumented immigrants, regardless of all indications on the contrary. Right this moment the FBI launched statistics exhibiting a 3 % decline in violent crime in 2023. That means a gentle decline for the reason that uptick that occurred through the pandemic. These numbers for the FBI’s annual report have been compiled from legislation enforcement businesses throughout the nation utilizing information overlaying 94 % of the inhabitants. Individually, the FBI has repeatedly reported that crime from immigrant teams is definitely decrease than the nationwide common. … So what do the numbers actually imply? What are you seeing in these numbers?

KEN DILANIAN: Most hanging factor, Andrea, is that they are saying that homicide declined 11.6 % final 12 months, and that is the most important single-year decline on document. And it is taking place, in fact, after homicide had the most important spike on document in 2020 through the pandemic. So what we’re seeing, huge image, there was an enormous spike in volent crime through the pandemic. It has been steadily happening, and it is just about again right down to pre-pandemic ranges. That must be uncontroversial, nevertheless it’s not as a result of the Republicans and others are pushing the narrative that this information is flawed — that crime is one way or the other up when it is down.

And there was a 12 months — 2021 — when a few of this FBI information was lacking a number of huge cities, however that is now not true. As you mentioned, it covers 94 % of the inhabitants, each metropolis of over one million, and it clearly exhibits that violent crime was down final 12 months. And now we have different information from this 12 months that exhibits that that pattern is constant within the first half of 2024 with violent crime and homicide. It is a excellent news story — it is too unhealthy that not all people’s ready to simply accept it, Andrea.

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CNN Information Central

September 23, 2024

3:37 p.m. Japanese

JOHN MILLER, CNN CHIEF LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: If you happen to zoom again, although, and also you get the bigger story, which is: What is the five-year pattern? Nicely, check out our different graphic, which is you see that over the time, say, from the five-year evaluation, homicide is definitely up nearly 10 %. Aggravated assaults up nearly seven % — 6.5 %. So that you see that we’re not the place we have been earlier than — pre-pandemic, pre-criminal justice reform legal guidelines in lots of states, pre the defund the police motion — all of which had totally different results on police businesses throughout the nation.

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MSNBC’s Katy Tur Studies

September 23, 2024

3:53 p.m.

DONALD TRUMP: We’re right here as we speak to speak about how we’re going to cease the Kamala crime wave that is happening at ranges that no person has ever seen earlier than. (modifying bounce) Since comrade Kamala Harris took workplace, her administration’s crime statistics present she’s presided over a 43 % improve in violent crime. These are all authorities numbers — 43 % improve in violent crime —

KATY TUR: Donald Trump is working on claims that the nation is a violent dystopia — a spot the place, as he says, you possibly can’t even go purchase a loaf of bread with out being mugged, shot or raped. However do the precise numbers match his rhetoric? Becoming a member of us now, NBC Information justice and intelligence correspondent Ken Dilanian. I purchased two loaves of bread yesterday, Ken, and I am joyful to report I didn’t get mugged, shot or raped once I was doing it. What do the crime numbers — the FBI numbers say with reference to what’s taking place on this nation? And what do they imply for Donald Trump’s 43 % numbers?

KEN DILANIAN: Nicely, that is simply flatly flawed when Donald Trump mentioned that. The newest numbers from the FBI which come from cities by the way in which — the FBI would not make these numbers up — present that violent crime general declined by a fee of three % in 2023, after which homicide declined 11.6 %, and that is the most important single-year drop on document. Now, in fact, the context right here, Katy, is that is coming after an enormous spike in violent crime through the pandemic, and actually what’s taking place is it is settling again to pre-pandemic ranges, which have been traditionally low.

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MSNBC’s Deadline: White Home

September 23, 2024

4:55 p.m.

DONALD TRUMP: They have to cease crime. You exit for a loaf of bread as we speak, and you find yourself getting mugged, killed, shot. (modifying bounce) Crime is totally uncontrolled. (modifying bounce) Yeah, they only launched, as you noticed, numbers saying that crime is up 44 %.

NICOLLE WALLACE: No they did not. That’s Trump’s model of the triple risk, proper? Mendacity, slurring and making issues up in his creativeness — he is by no means purchased a loaf of bread. That was him doing all these issues about crime over the weekend, however right here on Earth One, there may be new information — statistics — from the FBI run by somebody Donald Trump appointed to the publish. It confirms a transparent trajectory throughout the nation of massively declining violent crime statistics in America with a greater than 10 % drop in homicide between 2022 and 2023. That is the most important 12 months over 12 months decline in crime reported by the FBI in 20 years. And in the event you’re pondering, “Nicely, what if the DOJ has totally different numbers than the numbers Trump’s speaking about?” the reply is not any. The DOJ’s preliminary information additionally from 88 cities additionally exhibits that violent crime has continued to say no significantly this 12 months.

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CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360

September 25, 2024

8:16 p.m.

ANDERSON COOPER: As you recognize, really, violent crime is down, you recognize. Automobile robberies, you recognize, shoplifting has been up — violent crime is down. And, as you recognize, additionally, migrants typically commit — don’t commit crimes on the identical degree. They commit crimes at a decrease degree than the U.S. inhabitants.

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PBS NewsHour

September 27, 2024

7:35 p.m.

GEOFF BENNETT: It may be a resonant political difficulty, however do a reality verify as a result of crime charges on this nation have really come down.

LISA DESJARDINS: Proper. We hear this once more, and once more, particularly from Trump and Republicans. There have been new figures out simply as we speak — or simply this week reasonably — from the FBI. Right this moment Lawyer Basic Merrick Garland mentioned that crime charges have gone right down to nearly their lowest degree in 50 years.

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MSNBC’s Alex Wagner Tonight

March 20, 2024

9:33 a.m. Japanese

ALI VELSHI: If you happen to have been to randomly flip on Fox Information, there are fairly respectable odds one can find your self watching a section about how Biden’s America is rampant with crime. “America is in a criminal offense disaster.” And it isn’t simply Fox — Trump can be obsessive about crime, however a really particular form of crime.

DONALD TRUMP CLIP #1: It is a new form of crime — I do not know in the event you’ve heard this — however I got here up with this one — “migrant crime.” There’s crime, there’s violent crime, there’s migrant crime. We’ve a brand new class of crime — it is referred to as “migrant crime.”

TRUMP CLIP #2: The US is being overrun by the Biden migrant crime. It is the brand new type of vicious violation to our nation. It is migrant crime. We name it “Biden migrant crime.”

VELSHI: There’s an issue with that as a result of what Trump and Fox are pushing lack details. Throughout the nation, the crime fee is down, and it is persevering with to drop. We obtained new FBI crime information yesterday that exhibits that, regardless of the way you slice it, America is getting safer. Property crime is down, violent crime is down, the homicide fee noticed the sharpest annual decline ever recorded. And that supposed wave of migrant crime that Trump is obsessive about, Fox Information ran 400 segments on it within the first 10 weeks of this 12 months. However the details will not be on Trump or Fox’s aspect on that both. Statistically talking, immigrants are much less prone to commit crimes than U.S.-born residents are, however you do not hear that on Fox Information.

Now, none of that is to say that many communities throughout the nation aren’t nonetheless grappling with very actual incidents of crime or that we should always flip away from efforts to scale back crime. However the narrative being pushed right here that crime is on a precipitous rise underneath Biden’s Democratic administration is solely false. What details — Fox Information lacks in details, it makes up, although, in vibes.

DANA PERINO, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Democrats will say, “Nicely, however crime is down. It isn’t how individuals really feel.”

LAURA INGRAHAM, FOX NEWS HOST: Everyone knows communities do not feel safer.

MICHELE TAFOYA, FORMER NFL SIDELINE REPORTER (on Fox Information Channel): You do see crime on the rise, and I, you recognize, President Biden held that entire presser about how crime is down in America. I do not know. Once more, it is — do you imagine your mendacity eyes? Or do you imagine the President of the US?

He simply on the White Home a couple of moments in the past was simply touting a drop in crime statistics. That isn’t what we’re all feeling and seeing.

VELSHI: Do not imagine your mendacity eyes. The fact is that crime in America began spiking in 2020 through the pandemic when Donald Trump was President. However Fox Information is profiting from a niche between notion and actuality right here. Polling exhibits us that nearly yearly for the previous few many years, People have felt just like the nation was getting extra harmful even when it wasn’t. And people emotions now have a partisan cut up to them. Final 12 months, Gallup discovered that 92 % of Republicans imagine crime rose from the 12 months earlier than in comparison with 58 % of Democrats. I ponder why.

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MSNBC’s All In with Chris Hayes

March 21, 2024

8:44 p.m. Japanese

CHRIS HAYES: If you happen to occur to be a frequent viewer of this program, you may be acquainted with this chart. The image paints about as clear because it will get. There was a document spike in violent crime underneath Donald Trump in 2020 — it shoots as much as the left there. There’s been a constant decline since President Joe Biden took workplace. The factor about crime information, it takes a very long time to combination. It is really gotten worse over time. The chart is predicated on preliminary info as a result of it takes some time for the complete image to return into focus. These stats trickle out earlier than the FBI drops its ultimate report for the 12 months earlier than, however there’s the factor. The Bureau simply launched some extra information — new information from 2023 — indicating that, sure, there was a large drop in crime final 12 months. In accordance with one crime information analyst who spoke to NBC Information, when all is alleged and finished, 2023, quote, “We may have seen probably the most important one-year decline in homicide that has ever been recorded.” It’s indeniable the nation is getting each safer and extra affluent within the final 4 years underneath President Biden. It would not look like that message is getting via, not less than not for now. I feel it is true for lots of causes — typically associated to media consumption.

Native information has plenty of principally monetary incentives to hyperfixate on crime, and so they do. It is very true for violent crime, usually in a approach that is disproportionate to precise statistics. And, in fact, right-wing cable information has an apparent political incentive to painting life in President Biden’s America as negatively as attainable. (montage of 10 totally different individuals on Fox Information Channel stating that “crime is uncontrolled”) I feel the media focus is one motive why this message shouldn’t be getting via, however a few of the accountability additionally falls on the Biden administration itself which, till not too long ago, hasn’t finished an excellent job of articulating the actual tangible successes on this entrance. Which is why it is extremely fascinating to me when earlier this week, the Biden-Harris White Home launched this assertion touting the brand new information from the FBI and taking credit score for making People safer. Quote, “Because of the American Rescue Plan, which each Republican in Congress voted in opposition to, we made the most important ever federal funding at combating and stopping crime at any time in our historical past. This document funding in crime discount is delivering outcomes.”

The Biden White Home is not simply touting the decline in crime, however they’re really taking credit score. They’re pointing to laws investments because the trigger. It is a fairly darn good message in an election 12 months.

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MSNBC’s Jose Diaz Balart Studies

March 28, 2024

11:58 a.m. Japanese

JOSE DIAZ BALART: Rehema, the previous President has been highlighting violent crime in New York Metropolis. How does information present — what does information present about crime within the metropolis?

REHEMA ELLIS: Nicely, there’s a notion that there’s a rise in crime due to some high-profile crimes, if you’ll. However, in line with the NYPD, main crimes are down one thing like 2.3 % within the metropolis, and that is in comparison with this time final 12 months. So notion is one factor, and NYPD says the fact is one thing else.

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MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell Studies

March 28, 2024

12:07 p.m. Japanese

ANDREA MITCHELL: And, Phil, the politics of this election is now turning to Lengthy Island the place there is a funeral for NYPD officer Jonathan Diller on Lengthy Island — Massapequa, Lengthy island. He was killed after approaching an illegally parked automobile this week. President Biden simply spoke with Mayor Adams concerning the tragedy as we speak. Donald Trump’s spokesman says he was invited by the officer’s household to the funeral, however the political context is Mr. Trump’s declare that crime is rampant in New York Metropolis when the statistics present it is really down. Each incident, each case is horrible, in fact. This homicide is horrible, of a police officer. However, chatting with the bigger difficulty of whether or not crime is a horrible downside in New York Metropolis.

PHILIP RUCKER, THE WASHINGTON POST: Yeah, Andrea. We noticed this within the midterm elections final 12 months really the place numerous Republicans, together with in New York state, have been working on crime with some restricted success. It was not essentially a profitable difficulty for Republicans then, nevertheless it has been a part of Trump’s political model. It is one thing he has talked about loads. He is particularly tried to hyperlink crime to the immigration difficulty and border safety. And I feel him going to this funeral as we speak in New York is an try by him to attempt to attract consideration to the killing of this police officer and attempt to blame that on Biden even, as you say, crime is down in New York Metropolis. It is down in numerous cities. It isn’t really down in Washington, D.C., right here, however it’s down in numerous cities across the nation. However, nonetheless, it’s a concern that we see registering in polling, particularly amongst suburban voters and a few of these voters that Trump is admittedly going to be trying to inspire within the common election. And I feel we’ll in all probability proceed to see him speak about crime and attempt to make the state of crime appear loads worse than the statistics may really present for functions of motivating his supporters and persuadable voters on the market.

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MSNBC’s Katy Tur Studies

March 28, 2024

3:09 p.m. Japanese

KATY TUR: So what about crime? I imply, clearly, former President Trump is making an attempt to make use of that to his benefit as we speak. Is that going to be a giant difficulty throughout the nation. Violent crime is down, and New York Metropolis is clearly a really blue place and can stay a blue place. It should take loads for this metropolis to show purple, however the feeling that New Yorkers have is one which’s not so protected, and that feeling when you may have information protection can begin to seep into the remainder of the nation.

DAVE WASSERMAN, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: That is proper. And what former President Trump does properly is make the most of these particular incidents whether or not it’s Jonathan Diller or Laken Riley to color a broader image of what is taking place within the nation. It is as much as Democrats and President Biden to fight that by pointing to statistics and pointing to a decline in violent crime and an increase in wages. What Democrats desperately want is a forceful communicator on this entrance. And, though President Biden was combative and aggressive and gave a marketing campaign speech within the State of the Union. These are remoted set items, and we’re not — we’re probably not listening to the President drive this narrative forcefully as President Obama or Clinton might need finished within the ’90s or within the final decade.

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CNN’s The Scenario Room

March 28, 2024

5:32 p.m.

JOHN KING: As a result of crime and immigration are central to the argument that Trump goes to make that you simply need to change — you need to change Presidents since you’re mad concerning the border, and also you’re mad about crime. Now, in the event you take a look at crime statistics nationally, most violent crimes are down. If you happen to take a look at the New York Police Division statistics, most violent crimes are down. However property crimes are up — motorcar thefts are up — and we have had many crimes together with an officer killed within the line of obligation which can be surprising, and so they get numerous consideration on tv. And so that is one place the place there’s a disconnect between the crime statistics and the crime perceptions amongst voters. And it could possibly be a key difficulty within the suburbs — a key difficulty with swing voters — a key difficulty within the place Trump must win — so it is a problem he desires to focus on. Once more, statistics let you know that crime is in higher form now than a couple of years again. Nonetheless, a few of these crimes are so surprising, Wolf, that they stir individuals. They stir anxiousness, and Trump desires to show that into votes.

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MSNBC’s Morning Joe

March 29, 2024

6:30 a.m.

JOE SCARBOROUGH: There’s an NBC article that I simply now posted on my threads account, and it simply exhibits the details. I do know the details do not matter to Donald Trump, however crime charges hold dropping. Crime, in truth, the speed is decrease now than when Donald Trump was in workplace — decrease than it was in 2020, even barely decrease than it was in Trump’s greatest 12 months because it pertains to crime in 2019. Homicide charges within the final 12 months over the large cities that he is continually harping on, down 20 %. Rapes down 16 %. You may go down the checklist on and on. Essentially the most severe crimes approach down. And, once more, the general crime fee for 2022 — the final 12 months recorded — the crime charges decrease once more than Donald Trump’s greatest 12 months in 2019. Definitely loads decrease than 2020. So he’ll say what he says, Republicans will hold mendacity, different information retailers will hold mendacity about it, and folks will whip themselves right into a frenzy and say, “What about crime?” And you’ll present them the details.

It is similar to — severely, it is similar to I can present individuals, you recognize, possibly they’re UNC followers the place they do not need to know that Alabama received final evening. I feel it was 79-77, however Alabama beat UNC. And so they go, “No, no, no, it isn’t –no, that is not the reality. It is the actual fact. It is only a reality. They might not prefer it, nevertheless it’s a reality. And that is how Trump extremists have gotten, and it is how cable information networks run. It is their enterprise mannequin to lie concerning the details — to twist and warp actuality for for viewers day in, time out, evening in, evening out.

And if you speak about crime, it isn’t as little as I need it to be. It isn’t as little as you need it to be. We have each mentioned we predict the bail difficulty in New York Metropolis is a joke. We predict cops aren’t allowed to do their jobs sufficient. We predict that is a joke. That mentioned, in the event you take a look at the numbers, Donald Trump is mendacity when he says crime charges are approach up. They don’t seem to be. They’re down. They’re decrease than they have been when he was President.

WILLIE GEIST: Yeah, that is only a reality. And violent crime, particularly, all those you simply laid out are down double digits 12 months over 12 months

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CNN Information Central

March 29, 2024

7:08 a.m.

JOHN KING: The crime debate is fascinating as a result of, general, violent crime is down, however private property crime is up, car thefts are up. And it will get numerous consideration on native information and on a sure community that’s clearly making an attempt to assist the previous President. They play it up greater than — possibly out of context a bit.

SARA SIDNER: That is truthful sufficient.

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MSNBC’S Chris Jansing Studies

March 29, 2024

CHRIS JANSING: Lower than an hour away on Lengthy Island, Donald Trump was in full assault mode utilizing the funeral of a police officer as a platform to go after Biden. He criticized the dearth of legislation and order — a message he repeated this morning on Fox Information.

DONALD TRUMP (on Fox Information): It is getting worse and worse for police as a result of we’re not — we’re not caring for them. We’re not — we’re not — we’re not permitting them to do their job correctly. (modifying bounce) … as a result of this nation goes to hell. Our nation shouldn’t be revered anymore. We’re actually — I say it in my rallies and my speeches, we’re a nation in decline.

JANSING: Nicely, the details are that crime in New York Metropolis is about the place it was a decade in the past when it was sometimes called America’s most secure huge metropolis. Violent crime has really declined all throughout the nation. Charges of rape, theft and aggravated assault are down though the polls present People imagine the crime fee goes up.