On March 13, the U.S. Home of Representatives handed the “Defending Individuals From Overseas Adversary Managed Functions Act” with a vote of 352 to 65. This laws would prohibit the wildly fashionable video app TikTok from working in america until its proprietor, ByteDance, sells TikTok to an American firm. U.S. President Joe Biden has publicly acknowledged that if Congress passes this invoice, he would signal it into regulation.
Subsequent, the invoice will probably be submitted for Senate consideration. Many imagine that the effectivity and progress of the Senate’s deliberations will probably be essential in figuring out whether or not the invoice finally turns into regulation.
At current, nobody can precisely predict the timeline for the passage of the invoice. Nevertheless, if we delve into the particular priorities of Democratic lawmakers and Biden himself, we’d surmise that Democrats are more likely to extend the dealing with of the TikTok invoice, significantly given the particular backdrop of an election yr, all of the whereas demonstrating their perceived significance of this laws.
First, there are doubts concerning the extent of help for the TikTok invoice amongst key figures throughout the Democratic Social gathering. In line with an evaluation by Professor Diao Daming of Renmin College in China, voting information within the Home of Representatives revealed that the 50 Democratic representatives who voted in opposition to the TikTok invoice embody notable figures like Katherine Clark, the previous assistant speaker of the Home and the present minority whip, in addition to Jim Clyburn, who till February was the assistant Democratic chief and beforehand served as the bulk whip when the Democrats managed the Home from 2019-2023. Moreover, rating Democrats on 9 committees, together with the Guidelines Committee, the Methods and Means Committee, the Price range Committee, the Judiciary Committee, and the Overseas Affairs Committee, additionally voted in opposition to the TikTok invoice. This means that key figures throughout the Democratic Social gathering have proven a notably cautious method towards endorsing the TikTok invoice, a minimum of throughout the Home of Representatives.
Moreover, we will assess the possible decision-making of Senate Democrats via two key components. First, there’s the composition of the 2024 Senate elections. Within the upcoming 2024 Senate elections, out of the present 51 Democratic seats, 23 senators will probably be up for reelection (together with three independents leaning towards the Democratic Social gathering). Amongst them is a big determine concerned in dealing with this laws: Maria Cantwell, a Democratic senator and chair of the Senate Commerce Committee. In distinction, the Republicans will solely have 11 out of their 49 seats up for reelection.
For Democratic incumbents in search of reelection, the decision-making course of concerning the TikTok invoice could require heightened warning. Mainstream election forecasting establishments comparable to Prepare dinner and Crystal Ball are likely to predict Republican dominance within the 2024 Senate elections. Many commentators have overtly voiced issues that banning TikTok in an election yr may spell political catastrophe for quite a few Democrats, particularly contemplating TikTok’s significance as an important instrument for attracting younger voters, a demographic essential to the Democratic Social gathering’s electoral success.
One other issue value contemplating is the efficiency of Senate Democrats on comparable laws. Within the present Congress, there have been a complete of 31 legislative actions involving the key phrase “TikTok,” with 20 originating from the Home of Representatives and solely 11 from the Senate. Out of those, 24 have been initiated by Republicans, whereas Democrats accounted for under seven. This means that Democrats in Congress have typically proven a extra reasonable stance towards TikTok in comparison with their Republican counterparts.
Traditionally, the position of the Senate has been to function a “brake” on the actions of the Home of Representatives. In line with the Senate’s self-history, the primary U.S. president, George Washington, is reputed to have mentioned “that the framers had created the Senate to ‘cool’ Home laws simply as a saucer was used to chill scorching tea.” In actuality, statistics point out that the Senate on this present Congress takes a median of 178 days to go a invoice. Subsequently, contemplating the position of the Senate and the construction of this Congress, delaying the TikTok invoice would possibly certainly be the extra possible selection for Democrats.
For Biden personally, there’s additionally no incentive to expedite the passage of this invoice throughout an election yr. First, contemplating the utilization habits of younger voters on TikTok and the help they confirmed for Democrats within the 2020 elections, Biden ought to keep away from alienating this demographic. 62 % of TikTok customers fall throughout the 18-29 age bracket. At present, Biden’s help amongst younger folks seems to be waning. A February ballot performed by Axios-Era Lab revealed that amongst voters underneath 35 years outdated, Biden leads Trump by solely a slim margin of 4 share factors. Nevertheless, younger voters have been essential to Biden’s victory within the 2020 election.
One other troubling improvement is that current polls in March have proven Biden trailing behind Trump in key states comparable to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. In such a precarious electoral panorama, the Biden administration significantly must keep away from the precise elimination of TikTok throughout an election yr. Such a situation may introduce unforeseeable dangers to the marketing campaign.
For Biden, a greater method could be to interact in thorough negotiations with congressional Democrats concerning the main points and timeline for the TikTok invoice. Efforts must also be made to induce the Nationwide Safety Council, the Division of Justice, and the Division of the Treasury to play an energetic position. This could contain demanding stricter scrutiny for overseas social media platforms, together with TikTok, to reveal prudence in nationwide safety affairs, whereas additionally leading to delaying the ultimate passage of the invoice – doubtlessly deferring any backlash till after the election.
Given the distinctive context of the 2024 election, Democrats in Congress and Biden seem inclined to extend the dealing with of TikTok. Nevertheless, amid stress from Republicans and the ever-changing political panorama, the destiny of TikTok stays extremely unsure.
